Plastic Progress or Pollution Plateau?

2024 was a pivotal year for strategic dialogue and advancements addressing the plastic crisis – but more is needed.

At Third Nature, addressing the plastic crisis is a top priority for us and a key focus area for investment. We’ve been encouraged by the growing interest, awareness, and action in this space across government bodies, policy makers, non-profits, and startups. People are awakening to the fact that we can’t just reduce gas-powered automobiles on our roads, only to see petroleum-based products increase elsewhere – such as plastics! Over the past year alone, the debate around plastics has intensified, offering a mix of progress and setbacks.

In this blog, I’ll provide a quick snapshot of current efforts to tackle the plastic crisis, with a primary focus on legislation and litigation (we’ll get to market innovations in a follow-up post!).

The problem at a glance

The world produces over 400 million tons of new plastic annually, and less than 10% of it is recycled. I’ve heard this reality described as: a single-use product that lasts hundreds of years. Talk about a missuited product for the market’s needs!

Plastic waste is omnipresent—in oceans and landfills, on mountains and city streets, and even within our bodies. It harms ecosystems, degrades soil health, and threatens biodiversity. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates that global plastic use and waste will triple by 2060 without intervention. Meanwhile, the UN reports that the equivalent of 2,000 garbage trucks full of plastic enter our oceans, rivers, and lakes daily. If no action is taken, between 23 and 37 million metric tons of plastic could flow into the ocean each year by 2040.

And of course it’s not just the waste—plastic production itself is a petroleum-based, energy-intensive process that depletes finite resources and generates significant greenhouse gas emissions. Even worse, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), known familiarly as “forever chemicals,” are commonly used in certain plastics, given their water- and grease-resistant properties. These chemicals are often found in things like food packaging, cookware, and textiles. Because these chemicals don’t degrade (hence “forever”), they persist in the environment and accumulate in water, soil, and living organisms, leading to widespread contamination. They are linked to serious human health issues, including cancer, hormonal disruptions, immune system harm, and developmental problems. Their resistance to breakdown makes them a lasting environmental threat, impacting ecosystems and contaminating food and water supplies.

Clearly, we have a plastic problem. But there’s good news: awareness is surging, and efforts are underway worldwide to address the issue.

A snapshot of current efforts

2024 was a pivotal year for dialogue and strategic advancements addressing the plastics crisis. Plastic pollution is now a mainstream issue in the United States, thanks in part to high-profile coverage in The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, CNN, and NPR. Terms like “microplastics” have entered daily conversation, signaling growing public awareness.

And the government is beginning to take action. The EPA released its National Strategy to Prevent Plastic Pollution, outlining steps to reduce pollution, adopt innovative materials, improve waste management, and minimize plastics entering waterways. The agency believes the U.S. can eliminate plastic waste released into the environment by 2040 with concerted action. In conjunction, the White House released a comprehensive strategy, laying out additional actions the federal government can take to address the crisis across the entire plastic lifecycle from extraction of materials to waste management. For example, included in the strategy was a proposal to phase out federal procurement of single-use plastics from food service operations, events and packaging by 2027 and from all federal operations by 2035.

States are stepping up too. California, for instance, passed a law (effective 2026) banning single-use plastic grocery bags entirely. It’s one of 12 states implementing similar bans, alongside others like New York, New Jersey, and Vermont.

And in a major flashpoint, California filed a lawsuit against ExxonMobil, accusing it of misleading the public about plastic recycling’s efficacy to promote excessive plastic use for economic gain. Seeking civil penalties, California’s attorney general, Rob Bonta, alleged that while the oil company continues to encourage and tout recycling as a solution to solve the plastic pollution crisis (while simultaneously ramping up its own plastic production…), 92% of the plastic waste that Exxon processes through its advanced recycling technology doesn’t become recycled plastic. In the legal filing, Bonta wrote, “For decades, ExxonMobil has been deceiving the public to convince us that plastic recycling could solve the plastic waste and pollution crisis when they clearly knew this wasn’t possible.” Following the filing of the lawsuit, Exxon has pushed back, calling Bonta’s claims frivolous and politically motivated, arguing that if Exxon were to stop investing in its recycling program, they will then need to rely more heavily on oil and gas to produce new plastics and meet societal demand. As noted by The Wall Street Journal, Exxon and several other oil companies face dozens of lawsuits across the U.S., all alleging similar claims of public deception. We’ll see how this litigation plays out in coming months and years.

In corporate America, 2024 was unfortunately a year where we saw several large enterprises backslide on their sustainability commitments. Coca-Cola, the world’s largest plastic polluter, recently scaled back its environmental goals. It downgraded its target for recycled materials to 35–40% by 2035 (down from 50% by 2030) and reduced its recycling goal to 70–75% of bottles and cans sold. Similar rollbacks have been seen from Shell and Unilever, to name a few.

Finally, on the international stage, attention to the plastic crisis continues to mount, but progress is proving to be slow. Late last year, negotiators from over 170 countries gathered in Busan, South Korea to finalize the first legally binding treaty on plastic pollution, but were unable to reach an agreement, delaying further discussions until 2025. Key sticking points included whether to cap global plastic production and address toxic chemicals, with some countries (particularly oil-producing nations, such as Saudi Arabia and Russia) opposing any measures beyond cleanup and recycling. Many nations and environmental groups insist the treaty must be ambitious, addressing the entire lifecycle of plastics, while others argue such proposals overreach the original mandate.

Progress, not perfection

It’s easy to feel pessimistic when setbacks dominate the news (such as the failure to reach an agreement in South Korea), and I get it. This problem is urgent and massive, and progress feels slow. But hard problems take time. Aligning countries, enforcing agreements, addressing economic incentives like the low cost of virgin plastic, and changing entrenched behaviors are monumental challenges.

Yet, I’m optimistic. The mainstream awareness of this issue is unprecedented, and though negotiations may require multiple iterations and incumbent organizations may move slower than we’d like, progress is happening. It’s clear that plastic is ripe for disruption. I’m particularly encouraged by the innovative market-based solutions and startups that are emerging to address the plastic crisis, especially ones that go beyond improving recycling and cleanup (which are of course essential) — and instead aim to more fundamentally shift us away from fossil fuel-based plastics towards bio-based alternatives, which we believe is the transformative type of change we need to drive maximum impact.

In my next blog, I’ll highlight some of these promising solutions and discuss the role of private markets in complementing the work being done by policy makers and litigation.

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